Clark Quinn

DECEMBER 30, 2008

Over at eLearn Magazine , Lisa Neal Gualtieri gets elearning predictions for 2009, and they’re reliably interesting. So there you have it, my optimistic predictions. Here’re mine: The ordinary: Mobile will emerge, not as a major upheaval, but quietly infiltrating our learning experiences. I welcome your thoughts.

Predictions 100

Predictions Social Networks Simulations Social Network 100

Clark Quinn

DECEMBER 15, 2020

As frequently happens, I get asked for my predictions. For one, Alan Kay famously said “the best way to predict the future is to invent it.” The other is “never predict anything, particularly the future.” And, of course, I have reservations. I was recently asked about what trends I thought would be seen next year. .

Trends 220

Trends Predictions Portal vendor 220

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Back to Wikipedia: they “can help shape behaviour and set an approach to solving problems” To me, they’re explanatory and predictive, in that they can explain why something occurred, and predict the outcome of various actions. It’s that latter that provides the instructional value.

Wikipedia 182

Wikipedia Cognitive Toolkit Predictions 182

Clark Quinn

MAY 11, 2021

Videos may be better for things that occur infrequently, onboard help or job aids may meet other needs to unusual to be able to predict for training, etc. For instance, all the ‘neuro’ stuff unpacks to some pretty ordinary predictions we’ve had for yonks. This is predictable, c.f.

Augmented Reality 312

Augmented Reality Predictions Behavior Second Life 312

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

‘ predictive coding ‘ Curiosity can assist in developing an interest. Each has it’s elements. Motivation improves learning outcomes, but requires understanding what makes us interested. We’re driven by a desire to understand the world (c.f.

Cognitive 215

Cognitive DevLearn Predictions Theory 215

Clark Quinn

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Pointing to post-cognitive frameworks like predictive coding, situated & distributed cognition, and more, I argued that we need to update our practices. I mentioned annual reviews, bullet points presos, unilateral decisions, and more. I also cited evidence that L&D isn’t doing well, so it is a worry.

Cognitive 193

Cognitive Brain Predictions Conference 193

Clark Quinn

NOVEMBER 16, 2021

Mental models are bases for predictions and decisions. I wrote a series of four posts about design that included a suite of heuristics to increase the likelihood of finding a good solution. Connie’s suggestions do likewise. I also suppose this is a mental model that we can use to help think about designing.

Cognitive 287

Cognitive Internationalization Search Diversity Training 287

Clark Quinn

NOVEMBER 21, 2018

Rather than send them off and await their emergence; I toss them out here, with a caveat: “It’s tough to make predictions, particularly about the future.” And I realize that my proposed trends are more wishful thinking than predictions. Still, a request came in for my thoughts. We can do better!

Trends 169

Trends Social Networks Cognitive Metrics 169

Clark Quinn

AUGUST 2, 2023

It’s about being able to predict and explain outcomes, not just to tout statistics and facts. I’ll suggest that turning the ideas into models , connected causal stories, helps. So, it’s about understanding how things work, not just ‘knowing’ things. With this prep, I can put together ideas quickly.

Cognitive 223

Cognitive PKM Apple Write Blog 223

Clark Quinn

JANUARY 3, 2018

These are not predictions (as has been said, “never predict anything, particularly the future”). Given my reflections on the past year, it’s worth thinking about the implications. What trajectories can we expect if the trends are extended? I mentioned an interest in AR and VR.

Cognitive 101

Cognitive Virtual World Predictions Performance Support 101

Clark Quinn

JUNE 8, 2021

Barrett talks about how those predictions are working constantly and at many levels in a way that provides some insights. Recommended to me, this book is more for the cog sci groupie, but it does a couple of interesting things. Second, she then uses that framework to debunk the existing models of emotions.

Cognitive 210

Cognitive Statistics Social Media Predictions 210

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 13, 2016

The key idea I want to leverage is the use of models to foster is the use of models to predict or explain what happens in the world. Similarly, we could ask them to predict, based upon the model, the outcome of some perturbation. And this comes from the use of models.

Augmented Reality 114

Augmented Reality Predictions Performance Support Exercise 114

Clark Quinn

FEBRUARY 20, 2019

And we can either act to put the world back in alignment with our perceptions, or we have to learn, to create better predictions. Now, this fits in very nicely with the goal I’d been trying to talk about yesterday, generating surprise. Surprise does seem to be a key to learning! It sounds worth exploring.

Theory 150

Theory Learning Predictions Sound 150

Clark Quinn

JANUARY 24, 2008

(..)

Predictions 100

Predictions Online eLearning 100

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 13, 2016

The key idea I want to leverage is the use of models to foster is the use of models to predict or explain what happens in the world. Similarly, we could ask them to predict, based upon the model, the outcome of some perturbation. And this comes from the use of models.

Augmented Reality 100

Augmented Reality Predictions Performance Support Exercise 100

Clark Quinn

APRIL 10, 2014

Thus, my prediction would be that those would be the types of applications that’d be seen after the bubble burst and we’d traversed the trough. Heck, if I could accurately predict all the capabilities and uses of a technology, I would be running venture capital. mentoring). And, as far as I know, I got it right.

Cognitive 146

Cognitive Plateau Virtual World Predictions 146

Clark Quinn

OCTOBER 20, 2020

The Predictive Analytics work that Ellen Wagner did is the type of opportunity we have here. Here, it’s about looking for signs of trouble and being proactive about reaching out and assisting. It’s not ‘sink or swim’, but recognizing there can be troubles and helping learners cope.

Education 208

Education Pedagogy Attitudes Predictions 208

Clark Quinn

JANUARY 6, 2016

Which, as I explained to her, is exactly predicted by the research. I can share them at relevant times as a tool for explanation or prediction, and together we can figure out what it means. She’s (fortunately) interested in learning for intrinsic interest, rather than to meet the hurdles (but capable and willing to do those too).

Cognitive 100

Cognitive Predictions Social Media Study 100

Clark Quinn

FEBRUARY 13, 2019

The joke is economics predictions have no real basis in science, but then important assumptions are made regardless. The underlying point, besides making and affectionate dig at our economic model, is that the details matter.

Cognitive 165

Cognitive Predictions Version Services 165

Clark Quinn

JANUARY 2, 2008

(..)

Predictions 100

Predictions Learning Big Question Blogging 100

Clark Quinn

JUNE 23, 2016

We should be providing them with models to use to interpret and adapt to situations (explain and predict). And we should be testing and refining them, recognizing that learners aren’t as predictable as concrete or steel. Our learning designs should have them dealing with a wide variety and degrees of certainty in situations.

Predictions 103

Predictions Pattern Agile Emergent 103

Clark Quinn

MAY 22, 2018

What they do is provide a causal basis for understanding what happened, and predicting what will happen. And I thought this an interesting insight. I’ve talked before about mental models , and they’re important for learning. And that’s important.

Communities of Practice 113

Communities of Practice Predictions Brain Community 113

Clark Quinn

FEBRUARY 27, 2018

That includes models to explain and predict outcomes, and cognitive annotated examples to model the appropriate solution. As learning experience designers or learning engineers , our job is to make sure we provide the right support for using our conscious thoughts to guide our practice.

Cognitive 126

Cognitive Expertise Brain Predictions 126

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 4, 2018

predict an outcome (what will happen). For each, you need to take some action, whether it’s to: classify as a fact (is it a this or a that). perform the steps (which action to take now). trouble shoot the process (what experiment now). Note, however, that for each, there’s an associated decision. And that, to me, is core.

Bloom 161

Bloom Taxonomy Pedagogy Exercise 161

Clark Quinn

DECEMBER 7, 2012

I also opined that five years ago I couldn’t have predicted where we are now, and consequently it might be hard to think that far forward. Regardless of technology, I can safely predict that most people will have some portable digital companion with them that they use to make themselves smarter in the moment, much as we do now.

Mobile 183

Mobile Microphone Internationalization Predictions 183

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 30, 2014

That is, the ability to explain what’s happened and react, or predict what will happen and make the right choice as as consequence. The other approach is to have learners make predictions using the models, explaining things. And I’ll argue that the need for this is less than 5-10% of the time. So what is useful?

Activities 172

Activities Simulations Ratio Predictions 172

Clark Quinn

FEBRUARY 18, 2013

Be predictable. This suggests that rule 2, ‘be predictable’, might be good in non-critical areas of focus, but not in the main area. For crowd behavior, one example is how the removal of street signs in a couple of cities have reduced accidents. Provide a good conceptual model. Make the output understandable.

Design 173

Design Cognitive Predictions Specialist 173

Clark Quinn

APRIL 17, 2019

The theory says that we’ll be willing to try several relatively equal predicted value outcomes to learn which to choose in the future (if I’ve understood the article correctly). The new article posits that there’s another factor, the expectation of value. We also want the optimal outcome.

Cognitive 126

Cognitive Theory Movie Predictions 126

Clark Quinn

APRIL 25, 2018

Conceptua models are the key here; causal relationships that can explain what did happen or predict what will happen, so we can choose the outcomes we want. Information that helps guide learners’ performance while they compile away their expertise. And again, not all SMEs may be able to do this part.

Design 147

Design Brain Embed Expertise 147

Clark Quinn

JANUARY 17, 2018

But this gets circular with the above unless we find a way to break out of the predictable. So how do we develop this? We certainly need to develop the expert models we know play a role. This was, however, more focused on compliance and there’s a much wider situation.

Develop 126

Develop Compliance Training Expertise Predictions 126

Clark Quinn

JANUARY 6, 2010

The Learning Circuit’s Blog Big Question of the Month is “ predictions and plans for 2010 “, specifically: What are your biggest challenges for this upcoming year? What predictions do you have for the year? I’ve already blogged the predictions question, so I’ll just address the first two points.

Simulations 124

Simulations eLearning Guild Predictions eLearning Consultant 124

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 17, 2014

I also remember a talk (cleverly titled: Predict Anything but the Future :) that said that the future does tend to come as an informed basis would predict with an unexpected twist, so it’ll be interesting to discover what that twist will be. design meta-learning mobile strategy technology'

Social Networks 184

Social Networks Augmented Reality Social Network Mentoring 184

Clark Quinn

JULY 16, 2014

Models give us a couple of useful things; they help us explain what has happened, and predict what will happen (e.g. While this might seem like more information, it’s really not, as the model minimizes the amount of arbitrary information you present. And it leads to better outcomes, so it would be worth it anyways.

Learning 175

Learning Predictions Instructional Design Expertise 175

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 8, 2008

My prediction about Games. ( Ten Predictions for eLearning 2008 ), I took a bit of heat, but looking at the trends - Games down! Oh, here was my prediction. Prediction #8 => Serious Games - Seriously Sorry, Not for You They will continue to get talked about A LOT. , Leading with an LMS - Harmful to Your Health ).

Methods 140

Methods Wiki Trends eLearningGuild 140

Clark Quinn

OCTOBER 6, 2016

We need to recognize that changing what is arguably the most complex thing in the known universe (the mind) in persistent and predictable ways is not simple. And we need to continue to educate ourselves on the science that is behind what we do. We need to be responsible. And simple solutions, while appealing, are not going to do the job.

Quality 166

Quality Metrics Predictions eLearning Strategy 166

Clark Quinn

SEPTEMBER 2, 2015

Then you can use the model to predict what will happen or explain what happened. Here the notion is that you have a mental model of a concept, capturing elements and causal relationships. When you see a situation, you select a model where you can map the elements in the model to elements in the context.

Cognitive 100

Cognitive DevLearn Predictions Brain 100

Clark Quinn

MARCH 12, 2014

Similarly, we learn better when we’re emotionally engaged, when we’re equipped with explanatory and predictive models, and when we practice in rich contexts.

Performance Support 161

Performance Support Diversity Training Predictions Attention 161